Research

The projected increase in extreme climate events in the coming decades is likely to exacerbate the existing productivity and demographic challenges facing Europe. We study the dynamic, medium-run macroeconomic effects of heatwaves, droughts and floods in 1160 EU regions through the lens of a local projections, difference in difference framework. These events reduce output not only on impact but also into the medium term. Output is 1.5 percentage points lower two years after a summer heatwave, 3 percentage points lower four years after a drought and 2.8 percentage points lower four years after a flood. Both lower regional population and lower labour productivity per hour worked contribute to the medium-term decline.

2nd International Conference on Climate-Macro-Finance Interface 2025 (Bayes Business School, London) · ESCB Research Cluster Climate Change 2024 (Frankfurt) · SEED at Uniurb 2024 (Urbino) · European Central Bank Internal Seminar (Frankfurt) · 2nd Bonn-Frankfurt-Mannheim PhD Conference 2024 (Bonn)

I study how weakening outside option within marriage affects women's labor supply. Using household marital histories and exploiting the 2008 German alimony reform, which reduced post-divorce transfers, as a natural experiment, I find that employment among married women most affected by the reform rose by 8–10 percentage points. The response is concentrated among women facing higher risk of divorce and does not vary with household decision-making structures. These findings indicate that women adjust labor supply primarily through precautionary self-insurance rather than shifts in intra-household bargaining power when legal financial protection within marriage declines.

Denver SOLE Conference (May 2026) · Leeds University ILPC Conference (April 2026) · German Sociological Association DGS (Feb 2026) · European Economic Association Conference 2025 (Bordeaux) · M-BEPS Conference 2025 (Maastricht University) · RES PhD Conference 2024 (Southampton) · Social Policy Workshop BiB 2024 (Wiesbaden) · RSEP Conference 2024 (Madrid) · Goethe University Brownbag Seminar 2024 (Frankfurt) · Deutsche Bundesbank Summer School 2024 (Eltville) · 1st Bonn-Frankfurt-Mannheim PhD Conference 2023 (Bonn)

We estimate the economic impact of three types of extreme weather events (floods, droughts and heatwaves) that occurred in Europe during the summer of 2025. Using weather data and estimates of average historical impact from Usman et al. (2025), we conservatively calculate that these events will lower gross value added (GVA) in the affected NUTS3 regions by a combined €43 billion in 2025, equivalent to 0.26 percent of total European Union output. Beyond these short-term losses, the regional impact of extreme events historically increases over time, with substantial impact in the following years. Based on the average historical experience, we estimate that the annual GVA in the affected regions will be €126 billion lower by 2029 than had these events not occurred.

Town Hall Brussels (European Parliament, Brussels) · European Commission Internal Workshop · JP Morgan webinar series · IKT Institute Germany (Guest Speaker)